Hybrid Neural Network System for Electric Load Forecasting of Telecomunication Station

نویسندگان

  • Maurizio Caciotta
  • Sabino Giarnetti
  • Fabio Leccese
چکیده

− This paper describes a neural network system for power electric load forecasting of telecommunication station. Getting an accuracy useful for contractual purpose a separately daily forecast of both main load and its oscillation is proposed. For the mean daily forecast we used a three layers multilayer perceptron (MLP), while to the oscillation forecasting we realized a system composed by a MLP and a self organizing map (SOM): the typology information obtained by the SOM unsupervised algorithm has been utilized as binary code in MLP input. The proposed system with hourly power load data of a big telecommunication operator has been tested. The total forecast has been obtained combining the two components. The forecasting accuracy for a whole year test data is around 2%. Some problem exists in the forecasted load of summer time.

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تاریخ انتشار 2009